Collision Risk and Flight Risk Modelling (CRM/FRM) has been used for many years to predict areas of highest risk to birds in a wind farm environment.
More sophisticated models now take uncertainty into account (New et al. 2015), and these too have evolved into sophisticated assessments of where birds will be most susceptible to wind turbines of varying height and rotor diameter. This work by Dr Robin Colyn incorporates:
- the probability of collision;
- the birds’ exposure to turbines (in time and space); and
- a measure of the spatial and temporal extent over which a bird is at risk of collision.
Dr Colyn now incorporates Habitat Suitability Models (HSM), terrain, topography, seasonality and vegetational indices into such models for greater accuracy. Upon testing (with real pre-construction data) the ability of such models to predict where future fatalities will occur, he achieved remarkable accuracy for species such as Black Harriers (100% accuracy), Jackal Buzzard (83%) and Verreaux’s Eagles (81%), within areas modelled as High Risk (Colyn et al . in prep).
There are two resultant products:
- Flight Risk (delineating areas where birds are at more or least risk – figure above); and
- Collision Risk (using the Flight Risk zones to calculate expected fatalities if turbines were placed within High, Medium or Low Risk areas).
We’ve used this sophisticated risk modelling since 2020, when it was first developed, and in doing so we have increased the area open to development (relative to more subjective assessments) for many wind farms, whilst simultaneously reducing the risk to all collision-prone species… A win-win for renewable energy and conservation.